Serie A Betting Preview | 30-05-15

27th May 2015

The Serie A season comes to a close this weekend with nearly all issues already ironed out. However, there is one battle that remains alive and well; Napoli and Lazio compete for the final Champions League place and it just so happens that the two teams face-off on Sunday night.

Napoli trail the capital club by three points in the standings but know a victory in Naples would see the Partenopei seal third spot, based on a superior head-to-head record. The hosts will fancy their chances against a Biancocelesti side that’s W2-D2-L3 in their past seven outings and suffered a derby defeat to Roma last time out.

But we’re going to look elsewhere for our best bets, starting in Florence as the stats suggest we should be looking to go low on goals when Fiorentina host Chievo at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. Under 2.5 Goals has been chalked up at 1.99 and that holds plenty of appeal.

Four straight wins has ensured La Viola will qualify for next season’s Europa League and although 10 of their past 12 home Serie A games have broken the two-goal barrier, Vincenzo Montella’s men have seen fewer than three goals in 12/18 (67%) of their Florence duels.

But the credentials for backing Under 2.5 Goals really come to the fore when you consider the impact that Rolando Maran has made since taking over as Chievo boss in mid-October. A former Gialloblu defender, Maran has led the Flying Donkeys to a hugely respectable W9-D12-L9 under his watch.

Over a 38-game season, Chievo’s 1.3 points-per-game under the new man in the dugout would have produced a 49-point total – enough for a mid-table finish. But incredibly, only seven of those 30 fixtures resulted in Over 2.5 Goals as the Gialloblu kept 13 clean sheets, conceding two or more goals in just six games.

Under 2.5 Goals has proven a successful formula in 12 of Chievo’s past 13 Serie A outings and I’m not prepared to walk away from the bet this weekend when such generous odds are on offer for a repeat at 188BET.

Meanwhile, it may also pay to oppose goals in Torino’s clash with already-relegated Cesena on Sunday night. Under 2.5 Goals has been priced up as a 2.04 chance and once again, it’s a price that should hold plenty of appeal to punters.

Three defeats in four have ended Torino’s hopes of European qualification next season but Giampiero Ventura’s charges will be hoping to sign-off with a win in front of their adoring Stadio Olimpico support in Turin.

The Granata have often struggled to bag maximum points, especially at home (W7-D7-L4), with their failure to cut loose often coming back to haunt. But the Bulls remain hugely consistent when going low on goals – a massive 14/18 (78%) of home league matches have seen Under 2.5 Goals bank.

Cesena aren’t anywhere near as routine in the low goals department but Domenico Di Carlo’s team have proven a tough assignment for Napoli, Fiorentina and Genoa in their most recent three road trips and could easily make life difficult for their hosts.

The Seahorses have returned only 7/18 (39%) of Under 2.5 Goals winners but with the visitors failing to net in seven of their last 16 outings, coupled with Torino’s overwhelming trends, it’s hard to ignore the bulbous price on another low-scoring encounter.

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