English Premier League Preview | Week 31

3rd April 2015

The Premier League resumes this Easter weekend after the international break.

Starting us off is the biggest match of the weekend as Arsenal host Liverpool at the Emirates. The Merseyside club are five points adrift of the Champions League places and a defeat here could kill off their hopes. Arsenal though look a little short for the betting odds, so the best bet may be to back goals. Four of the last five matches between these sides saw more than three goals scored and that’s an angle to side with here.

There’s not much to separate Everton and Southampton in the betting for their match at Goodison on Saturday. That would have been unthinkable in August! The Asian Handicap Goal Line market looks to be the place to go here. Under 2 Goals has been priced up at around 2.17 and with the security of a stake return if exactly two are scored that looks the call. None of Southampton’s last eight games have witnessed more than two goals while Everton have failed to score more than one in four of their last six home games.

Leicester face West Ham at the King Power Stadium on Saturday and it’s quite simply a must win for the club. The club are seven points from safety and time is running out. West Ham, priced at 3.00, are locked in mid-table with little to play for and with just three away wins in 14 they can’t be trusted. But can you back bottom of the table Leicester at 2.28? Not at those odds, so it’s another play on the goals markets. It’s surprising to see Under 2.5 Goals as big as 2.04. Back it!

Manchester United may just have (finally) clicked into gear this season. Two stunning wins over Tottenham and Liverpool have seen Louis Van Gaal’s side cement their position in the Champions League places. They’re 1.31 to beat Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Saturday and while they should win, it’s not a working man’s price. Instead take a look at the 1.96 on them winning to nil. United have won their last two home league games without conceding and Aston Villa (9.30) remain the lowest scorers in the division.

Swansea will be an interesting side to keep an eye on over the next few weeks. Will their intensity levels drop as they meander along in the mid-table positions? They should beat Hull at home on Saturday but at 1.89 there’s not a huge amount to gain. Hull (4.10) have a very difficult set of fixtures on the horizon as they bid to avoid relegation, and this may be a match they have targeted for a points yield. With that in mind, along with the 188 odds on offer, the draw at 3.40 may be the bet to invest in.

West Brom look a little under-rated at odds of 1.74 to beat lowly QPR on Saturday. Tony Pulis will be eager for his side to finish as high up the table as possible while QPR, priced at 4.80, have struggled all season away from home. The West London side have lost 13 of their 14 away matches and are sinking into the Championship. For a bigger price, the 3.30 on the Baggies winning by exactly one goal looks a fair bet. Four of QPR’s last five defeats have been by the odd goal.

Mid-January was the last time Chelsea won by more than one goal in the league, and they look to be winning the title in unspectacular fashion. The Blues are priced at 1.27 to beat Stoke at Stamford Bridge on Saturday evening and that looks too short. Stoke (9.80) have been a thorn in the side of the big clubs all season and should hand the league leaders a test. Under 2.5 Goals at 2.02 looks a generous price when you factor in it’s paid out in Chelsea’s last seven home games.

Tottenham always look a little underrated at the odds and to be able to back them at 2.09 against a side in the relegation zone is too big a lure. Their opponents Burnley, priced at 3.45, have a huge few weeks ahead of them and with their squad already well-worked this season in terms of game appearances it’s going to be a big ask for them to survive. Have faith in Spurs maintaining their Champions League push.

All eyes in the North East will be on this massive local derby as Dick Advocaat aims to keep Sunderland free from the relegation zone. The odds read as 2.44 to win at the Stadium Of Light with Newcastle priced at 2.80. This is usually a game when the form book gets thrown at the window, and it’s Sunderland who have excelled in recent meetings. Indeed, The Black Cats have won the last four encounters and are unbeaten in six over their rivals. With Newcastle suffering four defeats in their last five matches this is a game to side with the home side.

The Monday night match brings together Crystal Palace and second place Manchester City. With Palace up to the giddy heights of 11th after three wins out of four, it makes no sense whatsoever to back visitors City at 1.68. Side with Palace +0.5/1 on the Asian Handicap at odds of 2.03. A one goal defeat will see half of your stake returned, while you’ll be paid in full if they avoid a loss.

Premier League Best Bets

  1. Leicester v West Ham – Under 2.5 Goals 2.04
  2. Chelsea v Stoke – Under 2.5 Goals 2.02
  3. Crystal Palace +0.5/1 Asian Handicap v Man City 2.03

Odds correct at time of writing.

Recommended bookie for this weekend’s betting action: 188BET

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